Back o' the envelope

[Admin]

Analyst consensus for (fiscal) '17 is $201.2M.

That means the quarters should go something like Q1: $45.4M, Q2: $48.5M, Q3: $51.9M, and Q4: $55.4M, which all adds up to $201.2M.

Your mileage may vary. Do your own due diligence.

[christopher]

phobos:

Not sure if this is doable or not:

Is there a way you can take the quarterly revenue price and come up up with a suitable share price value?

Thanks,

[Admin]

A lot depends upon how the market might decide to value the shares.

Current revenues $39.7M X 3.93 (TTM P/S) X 4/81.53M (shares outstanding) indicates a share price around $7.65.

Q1'17 would come in at around $8.75 using the same reasoning (assume P/S and shares outstanding stay the same). $9.83, $11.01, and $12.27 would be the share price for the other three quarters with the same assumptions. Figuring a 30% buyout premium, that would be $11.38, $12.78, $14.31, and $15.95. So, somewhere between $11 and $16 during fiscal year '17 depending upon timing and valuation, would be the buyout price.

I believe the above is fairly conservative. Keep in mind CAVM's P/S is more than double.

[christopher]

Thanks for the valuations phobos,

We now have close to three months before the next cc and today we have already given back a big amount of the recent gains. 11/5/2015 close the day down .29 @ $7.11 share 622,692 shares traded.

I am already wondering if I should have sold and repurchased when we drop back to the mid-six dollar level.

[Admin]

It's always 20/20 vision in hindsight. Selling right after the earnings call would give the seller one opportunity to miss the peak after the call, miss the low leading into the call, and of course the opportunity to pay short-term capital gains.

Speaking for me, I would only sell if the underlying value proposition of the company changed or if there was the slightest suggestion of impropriety on the part of management (thank you Vitesse!). But you have to invest how you are comfortable investing.

[christopher]

Going back two posts above, pertaining to valuations

Back in July,

I read two different articles that a most likely sale of AMCC would be in the next six to nine months.

That would fall between the months of January and April of 2016, which would be Q4 of 2016 and Q1 of 2017.

Including the valuations above and Q1 of 2017, that would put a sale price at $11.38 share.

I understand that this all means O, but, if any of this was to means anything at all I am hoping for a delayed sale until Q4 of 2017.(this would actually be January- March of 2017)with a sale price of $15.95 share. This would also add close to one full calendar year on top of what was projected.

The more I think about it the more I do not like the time frame for the $15.95 share situation. Who would? unless you have been buying and selling shares, back and forth the whole time thru.

I will leave this as we have a situation, a mighty nice situation (the way it looks presently anyway) a situation where there should be a substantial pay off. How substantial is any ones guess. 

phobos, I do like this situation better than the last we were involved with, much better!

[christopher]

will stick this here, probably not worth adding it's own topic:

with all of the news released today (11/16/15)

announcement of X-Gene 3

collaboration with E4 Computer Engineering

introduction of X-Tend

Eurotech HiVe now available with ARM

There has been only 180,000 shares traded today. Up .01 @ $6.87.   Will most likely take time for ALL of this news to digest. 

This has ALL to do with taking market share from Intel. This is BIG news!

Big money is on the way!!!

This is from Zacks:   A stock that looks promising and worth a look at in the industry is Applied Micro Circuits Corporation AMCC and carries a Zacks rank # 2 BUY

11/16/2015 Ameritrade continues to have a short interest rate of 10.95%

The average analysts price target for AMCC as of 11/17/2015  is set at $8.20 share.

[Admin]

Zacks says "Buy!", holy crap!

I just posted elsewhere,

"I really like what they've done with X-tend. It is not only another product and technology to sell, but it also enhances the value of X-gene, while providing a competitive advantage. You remember what I was saying about Mellanox and EZ Chip? I think that AMCC has solved that competitive problem rather handily. AMCC has really done their homework here."

And I mean that, they're coming at this particular market from the processor end and the interconnect end both. Mellanox had to buy EZ-Chip, while AMCC seems to have developed ARM processor capabilities in house. This is big f'ing news!

[christopher]

Here is a follow up to my post above regarding:

"11/16/2015 Ameritrade continues to have a short interest rate of 10.95%"

Well, here is another update:

11/26/2015 Ameritrade now shows a short interest rate of 11.01%

Short interest is a smidge higher than before. I would have thought the percentage rate would be dropping and not be rising??? Maybe with the fairly large drop down from around 15% the rate is just taking some time to settle and will take a couple of cycles until the actual shows.

or is it really rising??? I doubt it!

[Admin]

It's hard to tell. I would call this "unchanged", since it is a change of 0.06%. Probably nothing much tangible will happen unless and until we get some direct indications when competitors, customers, or AMCC itself releases earnings. It's a long time to wait.

[christopher]

Here is a story on that short interest bump-up of 0.06%, (from the two posts above)

There was an increase of 30,397 shares short, couple of weeks ago.

www.americantradejournal.com/applied-micro-circuits-corporation-short-interest-update/6153088/

[Admin]

Short interest now down at 10.3%:

www.americantradejournal.com/applied-micro-circuits-corporation-nasdaqamcc-short-interest-update-2/6159324/

[christopher]

I am tossing this in here because I am not sure it will amount to much,

Yahoo business section under AMCC at 4:00 PM ET Friday states a closing price of $6.84 share and here is the confusing part: volume is listed to be 1,522,617 shares traded. Now at 6:30 PM ET Friday volume traded is listed at 767,792 shares traded.

What happened to the other 754,825 shares that are missing?

How can a higher number of shares traded, then become about half of those shares traded?

Actually if you go to the Yahoo AMCC site with 767,792 shares traded showing,  and click "refresh",  the one million plus shares will then appear for a short amount of time before going back to the 767,792 shares traded.

if it truly is 1.5 million shares traded, then it WAS a very busy trading day to the downside.

****Well, Ameritrade shows 1,522,617 shares traded.****

So I guess this is the correct number and Yahoo is experiencing some problems. Busy trading day of selling.

We are presently about $1.00 down from the last run up in price that occurred. I will assume that the short holders are going through the motions to collect their paychecks and that we will be eventually be moving up as Q3 earnings come into play.

[christopher]

Short interest has finally dropped to the single digits!

Was previously 10.3%

According to Ameritrade, short interest is now 9.7% !!

Four weeks to go until Q3 earnings will be announced!

[Admin]

It seems that ever fewer people think that the share price will drop.

[Admin]

Short interest in shares of AMCC are at their lowest in the last 12 months:

www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amcc/short-interest

...and the trend is downward.