Roth Capital Raises Q1 2017 Earnings Estimates

[christopher]

Roth Capital analyst, Krishna Shankar increased  AMCC earnings estimates for Q1 of 2017, from $.03 to $.05 share.  Roth Capital has a "Buy" rating on shares of AMCC.

I remember this Krishna Shankar dude. daWiley 1 on the Vitesse Forum had spoken very highly of this guy when he was an analyst for Vitesse, then he suddenly disappeared.  At that time he was not associated with Roth, I forget who he was involved with then.

Isn't a earnings raise from $.03 to $.05 per share  a significant increase for AMCC?  breakeven?

www.mideasttime.com/roth-capital-analysts-lifts-earnings-estimates-for-applied-micro-circuits-amcc/595526/

[christopher]

Not sure if this has been shown already:

Topeka Capital raises target price from $6.00 to $7.00 with a HOLD.

www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/research-us-idUSL3N12Y28J20151103

[Admin]

Overall, the investment community seems much more optimistic heading into 2017. I'm not sure if that's a GAAP or non GAAP number. I tend to think this might be non GAAP, and that AMCC will be very close to break even in Q2'17 (the June Quarter). If you add $39.7M to the loss of $8.1M, you get $47.8M. This might be a good number for BE GAAP revenue. This doesn't take into account variable costs, but It'll be it's pretty close (a fables semi company has fairly low variable costs). Looking at the "back o' the envelope" estimates:

Nov 4, 2015 14:50:52 GMT -5 Admin said:

Analyst consensus for '17 is $201.2M.

That means the quarters should go something like Q1: $45.4M, Q2: $48.5M, Q3: $51.9M, and Q4: $55.4M, which all adds up to $201.2M.

I think that puts BE squarely in the 2017 Q2, or this quarter next year.

It's my best guess and I'm sticking to it. Of course a lot can happen between then and now.

[christopher]

phobos:

"and that AMCC will be very close to break even  in Q2'17 (the June Quarter)"

I believe that the June Quarter is end of the first Quarter: (I really do not understand their reasoning for doing this)

AMCC actual year breakdown :

April-June = Q 1

July-September= Q 2

October-December= Q 3

January-March= Q 4

" I think that puts BE squarely in the 2017 Q2, or this quarter next year"

I believe that "this quarter next year" would be in Quarter 3, where we presently are: 11/7/2015 November is Q 3

#*#*Now, My question pertaining to ALL of this is: (from my first post at beginning of thread above) #*#*

"Krishna Shankar increased AMCC earnings for Q1 of 2017"

is Q1 of 2017 AMCC's meaning of Q1 of 2017  or calendar Q1 of 2017? 

Because there is quite a difference in time between the two.

AMCC's would be April-June of 2016 and calendar would be January-March of 2017. 

There is almost an entire years difference in time between the two, whereas AMCC's actual is about six months away. The other we still need to live through the entire year of 2106 before Q1 of actual 2017 arrives!  this is CRAZY!!

[Admin]

You're right.

I got my fiscal and my calendar years confused. This time next year at the release of the September quarter results. We are presently in the third (fiscal) quarter, but the second quarter results have just been released. My apologies for the confusion. I assumed that the article was referring to the fiscal quarters and not the calendar quarters (that would be a very long-range outlook for most analysts). I assume this time, just after the release of the Q2 results in the middle of Q3, next fiscal year, which would be fiscal '17, not calendar '17, which, as mentioned, calendar '17 would be almost two years off.

Between GAAP, non GAAP, fiscal and calendar, it's hard to know who is saying what when. Thank you for keeping me honest Chris.