Share Price Moving Up

[christopher]

12/4/2015 

After a week of  low volume , Friday has arrived and we are finally experiencing a heavy trading day to the upside!

By 11:00 AM ET  having pushed through the $7.65 share price we are up .28,  with 250,000 shares traded.

Hopefully we hold our gains going into next week?!

I kind of doubt it because,

seven weeks until the Q3 earnings call!!  Holy shit! that's a loooong time!!

6:00 PM ET

We closed the day up .11 @ $7.49 share. volume of 992,615 shares traded

The odd thing here is the after hours shares traded is up .16 to close at $7.65 share, the high of the day.

Why did we go up .16 after hours? That's a lot!

there must be a reason why someone had to purchase shares above the close of the day @ $7.49 share. watch for news Monday morning.

Unless, this is all a way in dealing with the 11% short shares? maybe?

[christopher]

According to the report below, we may be looking at $8.00 in the short term (Let's hope so!)

www.insidertradingreport.org/applied-micro-circuits-corporation-price-target-update/6193008/

[Admin]

Another analyst with an $11 price target, will touch $8 soon, and the after hours jump (somebody big bought in and the market maker had to scramble to digest the trade). Things are getting interesting Chris!

[Admin]

This is the second very odd close in a row. Down $0.21 on the day and mysteriously up $0.21 after hours (!) Care to hazard a guess because I don't know.

[christopher]

phobos, 

I am a bit confused. Came on for the first time today to see AMCC down .21 @ 7.28 with after hours showing no movement at all. (I do not see your up .21 after hours.)

I am still confused on Friday's close with after hours moving up a large amount,then beginning the day today and closing the day, in the red.

[Admin]

Oh, it's gone now, but look at the spike at 4:10:

www.google.com/#q=amcc

This is a little mysterious. The price spiked up and then went right back down again.

[christopher]

A spike up and a drop back down would be buying and then selling? correct?

just over 700,000 shares traded does not seem to be an out of the ordinary trading day.

With all of the recent talk and fluctuations in trading, possibility we may be moving higher towards the middle of the week. Like I stated before: we have seven weeks of trading to go before Q3 earnings call. Alot can happen in this time frame.

I wonder what price we will be trading at going into Q3? and with a good call where we will end up?

I believe during the middle of November was when we received the best news, being X-Gene 3 and X-Tend, this all added over $1.00 to our share price. All solid news going forward.

[christopher]

Well, so much for a nice run up! as it looks as though the shorts sure are dragging this thing back in the hole today!


Dropped back as low as $6.97 earlier today. Last week we were at $7.65.

I wonder if this was the reason for the end of the day push last week, with after hours trading topping out at $7.65. This all happening before the pull back occurred maybe occurring to help offset the pull back?

[Admin]

CAVM is getting hammered as well. Strangely, Atmel had a good earnings call recently.

finance.yahoo.com/news/atmel-atml-shows-promise-healthy-165004292.html

ATML is off too.

[christopher]

The sell off continues.

12/8/2015 Tuesday ended the day down .19 @ $7.09.   981,647 shares traded  (Heavy volume day)

With short ownership @ 11%, could be the reason why we have been selling off? and I will repeat: we still have over a month and a half of trading before Q3 earnings are released, so if we do not see MORE substantial news released then we will most definitely continue to see the share price move down.

[Admin]

This is a broad sell-off in world markets. Can AMCC hold value in the face of declining markets? I don't know.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-08/behold-deflationary-wave-china-flooding-world-its-unwanted-commodities

[christopher]

This Topic sure as hell has the wrong heading name!!

should be "Share Price Continues to Drop!"

I think it all comes down to: What price do you see AMCC trading at as we go into the Q3 earnings call?

Maybe after a holiday break, AMCC will level off and move back up going into Q3 earnings call.

as long as revenue continues to climb we should be climbing also? maybe?

phobos,

are China shipments of commodities a threat to what AMCC produces?

I myself do not believe so, the reason I believe that when the sell-off of commodities and energy related products suffices, technology(AMCC) will become an interest to those selling. Yes?, No?, Maybe?

[christopher]

Looks as though we have finally leveled off and the slow bleed has stopped.

What happened was we lost the entire amount gained a few weeks ago when the new products were released (X-Gene 3 and X-Tend) (which was approx. $1.00 gain)

We had maxed out at around $7.75 share and presently we sit at $6.79 share.

[Admin]

Commodity prices are a measure of how well the world economy is doing. Stalled commodities markets mean that the world economy as a whole is losing steam. I tend to agree with you that companies that make products for internet infrastructure will likely not be affected substantially. I hope that AMCC can stick to its forecasts. If it can, then AMCC will be able to maintain a good valuation. Also, let it not go unnoticed that low commodity prices can have a stimulating effect as well.

[christopher]

Another down day in the market today but my comment above regarding AMCC's non association with the sell-off in commodities was proven correct today by the story below. (AMCC finished nil today, down .10 and up .10 after hours)

"Today's Market Driven by Key Factors: Analysts notes on Applied Micro Circuits"

here is a quote from the above news story found on the Yahoo,AMCC message board  (you must pay to access the above story,which I am not doing, reason why I took the quote below from the Yahoo message board, which was taken from the above story)

by Jeff Kubinak: (AMCC message board)

"Pretty much sums things up for 2016"

"Roth's Krishna Shankar(Buy) is a little worried about the traction seen by ARM server CPU vendors Applied Micro (AMCC-0.4%) and Cavium (CAVM-1.1%) Beyond 2015, we believe that Intel's quasi-monopoly in high-margin servers (95% market share in server platforms) may be challenged by new low-power ARM-based server platforms for the high growth cloud services social networking/video-delivery market. Raymond James' Hans Mosesmann (underperform) states CEO Brian Krzanich admitted Intel's server CPU forecast accounts for share degradation."

Here are two analysts opinions that are positive AMCC for 2016. The recent sell-off is not a big deal(buying opportunity for some) Be ready for $8.00!! coming soon!! short% will keep dropping

[Admin]

Where is the bottom of this plunge Christopher? I wish Yellen would just raise the rates, so we could all get past this macroeconomic stutter-step.

[christopher]

phobos,

I'm not sure I can give you a bottom, but I do know that we have six plus weeks until Q3 earnings.

If earnings continue the move up with positive guidance, then I would believe that we may see $8.00 plus in the early part of calendar 2016.

[christopher]

Here is something interesting that I just stumbled upon.

I went back to find the story when AMCC would most likely be sold:

below states most likely a sale would occur within the next six to nine months. This story below was released on June 16, 2015. six to nine months would put us between mid December of 2015 and March of 2016.

www.thestreet.com/story/13188365/1/applied-micro-could-be-open-to-billion-dollar-sale-under-new-director.html

**Also Senior Research Analyst for Drexel Hamilton(who recently initiated coverage on AMCC) Cody Acree has a lot to say in the story above regarding a sale. Acree at the time the story was written was working for Ascendiant Capital

According to the list below, Acree now works for Drexel Hamilton. I wonder if this is THE reason why Drexel Hamilton initiated coverage? is there a sale in the beginnings? Could a sale be happening some time after Q3 earnings are released?

phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=78121&p=irol-analysts

**phobos,

is there any way that you can match a share price to the projected sales price below? thanks!

Acree puts a price tag on AMCC between $800 million and $1 billion

**Qualcomm not breaking itself up. not sure if this is good or bad in regards to them going on a buying spree:

finance.yahoo.com/news/qualcomm-decides-against-breaking-itself-154503245.html

[Admin]

Q316 and Q416 (fiscal) I have listed in the rows below:

40.5 6.8 8.9
42.5 7.2 9.3

The columns are "projected quarterly revenue" ($M), likely "stock price" given present valuation, and the likely "buyout price" given a 30% premium over share valuation.

That would be around $750M to purchase the equity, which is cheap at twice the price: I hope Gopi does not get greedy.

I have no idea why the share price is still plunging today... momentum?

Is it time for Gopi to smooth the waters and confirm guidance?

The last thing I want is for AMCC to go full VTSS on everyone.

[christopher]

phobos,

Please excuse my lack of knowledge:

is Q316 = $40.5M  for the Quarter and   6.8 is that $6.80 per share?

Q416 = $42.5M  for the Quarter and   7.2 is that $7.20 per share?

are 8.9 and 9.3 the added 30% premium?  I believe actually being the sale price per share?

Is there anyway that a per share price can be calculated from a set value price of the company?

if so, then:

$800 million would be based on how much per share?

and same for $1billion

****

As far as AMCC share price continued drop.

I believe that this is all part of a schedule. The shorts want their piece of the pie and when the time is right the share price will rise in accordance with the next earnings call and if revenues rise. Also reason why I believe that there will probably be no interest until the last couple of weeks of January until buyers step up to buy, unless there is a new product or customer unveiled between now and when earnings are released.

Gopi confirming guidance would be a commendable thing to do.

If revenue continues to rise then I believe that the share price will also rise but until short  ownership % drops, the share price will continue to drop down to unhappy levels. Even the rise in share price based on higher revenues will continue to have significant share price drops while the short ownership is so high.  Revenues rise thru Q3 then we will see $8.00+

10%+ short  is still a high number! and the reason why we continue to drop as much as we are!

[Admin]

"Is there anyway that a per share price can be calculated from a set value price of the company?"

Read more: apminvestor.proboards.com/thread/146/share-price-moving#ixzz3uaBnEDy2

There is no way that I know of to do this. It would be extremely variable, depending upon how much of ARM's 25% market share became reality and how much of that market share AMCC can garner (there are a few new entrants into the race even though AMCC is a "first-mover"). Estimates going top-down, as just mentioned, would be just as variable.

Right now, what determines the price given a particular time-line, is the P/S ratio, or the valuation that the market places upon the shares. The best case scenario is that the macro-economic environment stabilizes and AMCC keeps hitting their numbers.

Going forward:

37.8 q116 June-16
39.8 q216 Sept-16
40.5 q316 Dec -16
42.5 q416 Mar -16
46.3 q117 June-17
48.7 q217 Sept-17
51.3 q317 Dec -17
54.0 q417 Mar -17

2017 is supposed to be a $200M year. Let's hope the analysts are correct.

That's about a 25% yearly growth rate in revenue.

If AMCC remains in the lead for ARM processors in the data center, and all other projections remain in place, it could experience an 88% yearly growth out to 2020.

You see what I mean by extremely variable?

[christopher]

phobos,


"You see what I mean by extremely variable?"

understood.

                    Thank you

[christopher]

What a shock I observed when I brought up AMCC share price today!

1:00 PM ET up .48 @ $6.96

Share Price Moving Up Again!!

[Admin]

It seems like it might be a little end of year re-balancing for someone getting a bigger position in these relatively thinly traded shares. The number of days that this continues will hint at the size of the acquirer. It's a nice surprise, especially when we are in the doldrums between reports of earnings news.