Post by christopher on Dec 30, 2015 10:21:45 GMT -5
So, besides Intel we also have Qualcomm as sure possibilities.
The main item going forward I believe is how Q3 will play out. If we continue with revenue on the rise then the sale price of the company will also be on the rise.
Would be great to also see a rise in trading volume. This would benefit everything going forward.
Last Edit: Dec 30, 2015 10:24:23 GMT -5 by christopher
Well, it's a complicated picture. INTC might be in the market for LSCC, but why would INTC buy LSCC, another FPGA maker, after just sealing the deal on ALTR, who is in the same business?
Would INTC buy AMCC? This is an interesting question, since AMCC licenses the microprocessor technology from ARM. Is what AMCC adds unique enough to be worth buying? How would ARM feel about indirectly supporting the competition? Is AMCC working toward developing a product unique enough, so that a license from ARM would no longer be necessary at some point in the future? Would INTC buy AMCC for just the build-out and build-up chips that network the datacenter (this gets back to the questions asked by one of the analysts about would Gopi consider selling the networking portion of the business only - Gopi's response was that it would have to be a package deal: processors and networking chips both, or "no sale")? I wouldn't consider CAVM as much of a buyout candidate because it is not as much of a pure data center play and too it's valuation is still very high relative to that of AMCC.
LSCC and AMCC have both recently experienced sudden run-ups on the speculation of a buyout. We'll just have to see what happens. If AMCC just keeps hitting their numbers, then it's all good. Somebody will buy a good business. The question is, how much would they like to pay? The longer they wait, the more it will cost.
Here are two articles about consolidation in the space from the recent past:
The article below cites AMCC as a possible acquisition target, and even cites MRVL as one possible acquirer:
I'm guessing that the $1B number mysteriously appearing in the press when it did might have even been leaked by Gopi looking for potential suitors and letting it be known what an acquisition would cost at that time. A healthy double would be nice.
The buyout surges are speculative and not based upon any solid valuation metrics. A quick run-up and a just as quick collapse is all we will get. AMCC has to keep hitting their numbers, and they need to keep up the charm offensive.
I've been seeing CAVM, AMD, QCOM, and others in the press, but AMCC has suddenly gone into "Rip Van Winkle mode" since after the last trade show, and all those great announcements. I realize that this is a down part of the year around the holidays, but this has not stopped the competition from getting mentions. It's as if AMCC's marketing department has suddenly gone face-down in the mashed potatoes. They should remember that a takeout price will be based upon recent share price, not what Gopi thinks the business is worth (I'm thinking VTSS here). It's important to keep letting the market know you still exist, especially with a headwind of increasing competition.
Don't quit on us now AMCC! Hello? Is anyone home in Santa Clara?
