AMCC to Present at Needham Growth Conference

[christopher]

Applied Micro Circuits Corporation is scheduled to present at the upcoming Needham Growth Conference in New York, on Tuesday, January 12, 2016.  12:50 PM ET

Webcast available on the Investor Relations page of AMCC's website.

(At least something is finally getting released!!)

[Admin]

Have we roused them from their slumber?

[Admin]

I'm kind of hoping that this comes with a Power Point.

[christopher]

Dr. Gopi spoke at the Needham conference today.

stated that the last couple of weeks of shares being sold off was a non event type of situation with nothing out of the ordinary going on as far as the company is concerned. I believe that I heard oil was his reason for the sell off.

Dr. Gopi did state that 2016 was to be a very exciting year for Applied Micro.

Nothing new stated during the call. Majority of the call was explanation of the product line.

[Admin]

I listened last night, and I tend to agree. I think that the sell-off was roughly mirrored by a similar sell-off of competitor CAVM shares. It is something happening on the macroeconomic scale. Moreover, a down economy could increase the demand for lower-cost solutions, like ARM-based processor server solutions. Things would have to get pretty bad to offset this reality.

Going with some of Gopi's numbers... he said that 10,000 units of X-Gene were sold in 2015. He also said that over the next 18 to 24 months that the number would move from 10000 to 50~100 thousand units of all varieties. OK, that gives us something to work with. The worst case scenario is growing to 50000 units over the next 24 MOS., which is about a 80% growth rate in sales. Best case scenario is they sell 100000 units in the next 18 mos., which would be a growth rate of around 153%. Not bad.

What kind of revenue stream is that? I don't know. 100000 x $50 (?) is $5M. In addition, there are all sorts of other ancillary chips, like PAM4, X-Weave, the whole NUMA scheme that seeks to redefine the data center environment. This does not include the embedded market addressed by Helix, which Gopi says there are already numerous orders for, or all the legacy stuff, which he claims is "stable". The future could be very big for AMCC.

He also stated that AMCC is already at BE (not GAAP BE), but I would have liked to know when they would be able to put down the BS-thrower and say "AMCC is profitable on a GAAP basis."**

Gopi does not seem like a man who is in fear of not making his numbers next week. Let's see what happens on the earnings call.

This dog and pony show was definitely the bearer of good news.

**One thing about non-GAAP BE is that someone acquiring the company for products and talent wouldn't care about GAAP BE, since after acquisition they could pare things down to just what they want.

[christopher]

Needham and Co. is NOT listed as one of the analyst firms following Applied Micro.

Since Applied Micro has taken part in the Needham Growth Investor Conference, I wonder if Needham and Co. will soon be named as a new analyst firm covering Applied Micro?

It would make sense. adding more shareholders is the thing to do and promoting the company NOW is very positive.

Quinn Bolton is the analyst for Needham and Co. who follows the semiconductor companies.

If I remember correctly, Needham and Co. was the firm that helped with the sale of Vitesse to Microsemi.

Needham and Co. also helped Vitesse with at least one, maybe more stock offerings, in which Needham made a boatload (very very BIG shipload) of money!

I have  a feeling that Needham and Co. could possibly be announced as a new analyst firm representing AMCC going into the Q3 earnings call. 

[Admin]

I think you're right, It was Needham that did all those offerings to keep VTSS afloat. I often wondered if the pro-VTSS leanings of Needham was not a implicit "quid pro quo" for the business.

That being said, AMCC, unlike VTSS, has a strong cash position and it looks like they could be self-sustaining before long, if someone doesn't buy them outright. Additionally, with the ongoing collapse in equity, an equity offering at this time might not be the best way to finance a company's fortunes going forward. It seems like everyone is running for the hills.

Nothing can be done about the present macroeconomic downturn, unless you sell everything and put it under the mattress. There is also a risk to that though. You could miss the high upon exit and the low upon re-entry. If only crystal balls worked.

I think the valuation on AMCC could only go so low. I think CAVM is in a much more precarious position with its stratospheric valuation relative to AMCC. A drop in the market will effect high valuations more than lower ones all other things being equal.