ARM Holdings raises expectations

[christopher]

ARM Holdings raised expectations for Server Market gains at its annual analyst day meeting in London.

blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2015/09/15/arm-holdings-despite-skepticism-raising-expectations-for-server-market-gains/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

[Admin]

Thanks for posting that Chris.

I can remember, not so long ago, that ARM was claiming 15% of the $20B server market by 2020.

Making some back of the napkin estimates...

The TAM of ARM in the server space by 2020 is $5B (25% of $20B).

If AMCC can hold the lead among the six competitors listed, then that argues for a market share of around 40%, or $2B.

Holy crap.

...for AMCC, I believe that would be something like 120% revenue growth per year.

Holy crap.

[Admin]

Chris, if you go to slide 45 below:

phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzA0NTAyfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1&cb=635778262245579577

You can see AMCC is in half of the ARM-based server cards, which roughly corresponds to my 40% figure above.

I'm liking what I'm seeing.

[christopher]

phobos,

This may not mean anything but,

Looking at slide #45, the other half ARM-based server cards are ALL different companies. No one else is producing more than one unit. AMD, CAVM,Marvel, and Annapurna (who the hell is that, Google states a mountain range in Nepal)  all producing one unit.

I guess when it comes down to it, it's all about market share and quality-----X-Gene 3 ?

Annapurna Labs was recently bought by Amazon!

The October 14, 2015 date is looking to be more and more interesting as the days go by.

I recently read an article stating that AMCC should begin a very aggressive marketing program, promoting their ARM Server product line. I agree, marketing is the key to success for a above average product.

Maybe this all begins on the October 14 presentation day in which X-Gene 3 is released??? Maybe?

If interest rates are held back longer I bet you will see more SC13G/A filings released on the BUY side

[Admin]

I agree with everything you're saying Chris. Things are getting really interesting.

[christopher]

Thanks Phobos,

I will enter this sentence here again from above:

If interest rates are held back YET again(9/17/2015) I bet we will see another SC13G/A filed under AMCC SEC filings.

This act will push the AMCC share price above the $6.00 mark maybe

[Admin]

"This act will push the AMCC share price above the $6.00 mark maybe "

Absolutely! Good news from the macro environment could only help. That with a good earnings report, which is only 6 weeks away (?), should be enough to get a short squeeze going. What do you think?

[christopher]

Agreed phobos,

That is unless, I have been hearing that the "Fed" may wait until October to RAISE rates a whole SMIDGE!!

so,

I wonder if the usual chaos will be re-resulting going into the Q2 earnings cycle, along with the possibility of rates rising a whole 1/4 point at the end of October.

If rates are not moved up today, I doubt that the " Fed " will be telling us WHEN the rise will be, which sucks big time!!

Actually, they should be telling us they will go up  DEFINITELY by at least 1/2 point at a later date.

I believe that this will help offset any chaos in the market

The good ole FED has backed themselves into a very tight corner

Let's hope that if no move today, share price begins to move up.  October 14 release X-Gene 3 and we continue to move up and any rate hike occurring whenever it happens will be a small bump in the road. Maybe put it up against a short squeeze to help offset.