Post by christopher on Aug 5, 2015 11:49:44 GMT -5
It sure is phobos,
I would believe that with the revenue outlook to be on the rise, the trading volume will also be on the rise.
This is a complete opposite than what we have dealt with in the past. Just the amount of share price increase since the latest earnings release, from a range of $5.17 to where we are today at $6.80. All in just under five trading days. It sure is looking good!
Post by christopher on Aug 13, 2015 12:44:00 GMT -5
I do not have a link but from what I have just read on the Ameritrade website is that the short position involving AMCC has now grown to over 14.64%. This is not a low percentage. I am wondering once the next quarter of positive earnings are released if this tide of shorts will change direction.
Am I not correct to state that the only solution to this problem is an increase in trading volume to the up side?
Post by christopher on Aug 13, 2015 14:51:18 GMT -5
At the close ( 8/13/15 ) Looks as though the shorts are dragging the share price down down down( at the $6 share level) All on nothing but good news going forward. WHY?
Is this a formality situation where the shorts, that are now close to 15% ownership, will have their take of the goods. Until the large share buyer enters the market during the beginning of the second quarter financials release. thus bringing the share price back up to normality?
Last Edit: Aug 13, 2015 14:53:09 GMT -5 by christopher
"Hi, this is Kunal Patel calling in for Ambrish. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is [Cavium] during his call yesterday that if any shipping is done direct ARM-based products with meaningful volumes towards the ends of the year. Can you comment on what you're seeing in terms of competition within the ARM server camp? Thanks."
Mr. Gopi responds:
"So I think that we've said that we've already shipped in meaningful volumes, so I just want to say that. We've also disclosed that we've passed our 10,000 server mark.
We've also disclosed end customers that are using our devices, and I can tell you for a fact that we have full line of sight now into revenue next year from these types of deployment that will convert into production revenue. So I think all that clearly says that we have a clear heads up in this space relative to our competitors.
The other thing that I will also put a fine point is we have now taped out our first 16-nanometer device for subsequent productization to go out against E7. And the reason we are doing that is primarily to make sure that in the coming years as we expand ourselves into becoming and maintaining our leadership, we want to also cover the E7 class of servers in the market. So I think happy to see that other ARM players are here, but wanted to put a fine point on the fact that we were at this for the last four and a half years, we shipped our first production parts in October of last year and fully online to making sure that revenue and line of sight is improving almost on a quarterly basis for us."
...and yet, many of the customers that we know of are designing-in Cavium's Thunder-X, as well as X-Gene. This is quite an achievement for a competitor with no product. Why the downward pressure on the share price in the market leader?
The market is not waiting for Cavium. After listening to the Boston investor conferences, I realize that CAVM is addressing a different market and is 18 months behind AMCC (according to Mr. Gopi), hence those interested in AMCC are interested in CAVM are interested in ARM. Listen to the investor conferences.
Once the dust settles, we should see some buying on the dip. AMCC is in good financial shape, they have new products coming online, they have re-affirmed guidance for the next quarter.
Post by christopher on Aug 14, 2015 12:11:49 GMT -5
The latest sell off must all have to do with the technical pattern that must play out before AMCC share price can move forward. With the number of shorts now at 15% (hopefully a top)this type of drop must be needed to technically satisfy the shorts before ALL of the positive news pertaining to AMCC is able to help drive the share price forward. We have a number of months taking us to the end of the calendar year, for the share price to move up and if ( I am stressing a BIG IF) a sale is in the cards for the beginning of calendar year 2016, this will leave enough time for a nice move up to occur. Too bad I had not left some dry powder aside to add a few more shares at the depressed levels.
Last Edit: Aug 14, 2015 15:17:50 GMT -5 by christopher
We're now above the 10-day simple moving average, we're on the cusp of the MACD shifting to "buy", and the RSI is moving in a general bullish direction, although not actually bullish yet. I would be nervous if I was a short about now.
Post by christopher on Sept 3, 2015 13:36:24 GMT -5
9/3/15 AMCC short position has been holding steady at 15.84%. Once this buying spree tops out I will assume we will be experiencing another drop down. All this because of the high percentage of shorts in the market. When Q2 16 earnings become a story to the upside during the month of October, I will again assume that we will be heading higher. And, a Big AND, if AMCC is able to present a very good earnings call Q 2, the number of shorts may begin to deflate (?), pushing the share price above the $6 mark.
Last Edit: Sept 3, 2015 13:37:32 GMT -5 by christopher
I don't doubt it Christopher. They need to hit the $39M mark, or better, to silence the shorts. "softness in China", like a former CEO we used to hear from found out, just won't do it!
